TNF Week 4 Best Bets

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook - 2023 Season Betting Record (2-2-1)

Lions -2.5: -115

I like the Lions to win by at least a field goal in this matchup. The Packers' defense hasn't faced an offense as polished as Detroit's. When you think about it, the best offense they've faced is probably the Falcons, which isn't saying a whole lot. Additionally, the Lions' defense has been solid all year, except for a shootout against Seattle in Week 2. However, Green Bay's offensive talent isn't nearly on par with the Seahawks. Even though the Packers will have Christian Watson and Aaron Jones back, I don't believe it will be enough to defeat the hungry Lions.

Aaron Jones Over 16.5 Receiving Yards: -110

Running backs often struggle to gain yards against the Lions' defensive front. The Packers had several well-designed plays for Aaron Jones as a receiver in Week 1 against the Bears, and I expect them to employ a similar strategy on Thursday. Jones is the key player in the Green Bay offense, and when they faced challenges or tough third and fourth-down situations, Matt LaFleur devised plays specifically for him. Most of these plays resulted in significant yardage gains. One play was a pass where Jones picked up 51 yards, while another resulted in a 35-yard touchdown catch by him. Assuming Aaron Jones is active for today's game, it might be a good idea to bet on the over for his receiving yards prop.